Oscar Nominations 2018 Prediction Success (and Failure)

Brandon Thompson
Jan 27, 2018
4 min read

Below in each category I will list my nominations and bold the ones I got right and list the ones I didn't underneath.

Best Picture (7/9)

Lady Bird
Dunkirk
Get Out
The Post
Three Billboards
The Shape of Water
Call Me By Your Name
I, Tonya
The Big Sick
The Florida Project

Didn't Get: Phantom Thread, Darkest Hour.

Thoughts: Best Picture can range between 5-10 nominees and is usually about 8-9. So if I took away one of the three I got wrong (which were lower on my predictions) I got 7/9 correct. I am super happy that Phantom Thread is getting this recognition even though I haven't seen it as I am a huge fan of Paul Thomas Anderson. There is also plenty of diversity in the stories told in the nominations. Films about women, LGBTQI, and race are the obvious ones but a monster film and horror film make for a pleasant sight.

Best Director (4/5)

Great Gerwig
Jordan Peele
Guillermo Del Toro
Christopher Nolan
Steven Spielberg

Didn't Get: Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread)

Thoughts: I lost my shit when I saw that PTA got a nomination as I thought he would always be on the sideline for the Academy. He also didn't get any nominations from the Golden Globes or BAFTAs to make his nominations even more surprising. It's also great to see diversity here. A woman, African-American and a Hispanic (which since 2013 doesn't mean much as three of the last four best directors have been Hispanic). While the diversity issues won't be overcome until all five nominees are all black or all female it's still great to see progress.

Best Actor (3/5)

Daniel Day Lewis (Phantom Thread)
Tom Hanks (The Post)
James Franco (The Disaster Artist)
Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
Timothee Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name)

Didn't Get: Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq.) and Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out)

Thoughts: Well I didn't expect Washington to get a nomination (nor did no one else) for a movie that I have never heard of until his SAG nomination. I don't think Franco's snub was a result of the allegations against him as the first one came out approximately two days before the nomination votes closed and most people probably already voted. Kaluuya's performance was a great personification of the black experience in America but if you take that away it isn't most memorable performance in my book. The other three nominees were the safe picks. Most importantly the biggest snub of this category is Robert Pattinson for his performance in Good Time.

Best Actress (5/5)

Frances McDormand (Three Billboards)
Soarise Ronan (Lady Bird)
Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)
Meryl Streep (The Post)
Margot Robbie (I, Tonya)

Didn't Get: 5/5

Thoughts: Not a big fan of Robbie's but I can't deny that she has connected with a lot of people over her short career (I think because of looks more than talent however). I was also on the edge of my seat before they announced the fifth nomination, Streep, as I thought they could've left her off.

Best Supporting Actor (3/5)

Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards)
Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water)
Armie Hammer (Call Me By Your Name)
Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me By Your Name)

Didn't Get: Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards) and Christopher Plummer (All the Money in the World)

Thoughts: I was overly optimistic for Call Me By Your Name to get two nominations but for it to get none was really surprising. I hope Dafoe wins this as it's probably the best performance of the year (or Robert Pattinson in Good Time). In the other categories the other probable winners will be roles in which people are angry, and on edge. I would love to see a more uplifting performance get recognition this year.

Best Supporting Actress (4/5)

Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)
Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
Holly Hunter (The Big Sick)
Mary J Bilge (Mudbound)
Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)

Didn't Get: Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread)

Thoughts: I didn't expect the Academy to like Phantom Thread as much as they did. Is Octavia Spencer the new Meryl Streep?

Best Adapted Screenplay (5/5)

Call Me By Your Name
Mudbound
Molly's Game
The Disaster Artist
Logan

Didn't Get: 5/5

Thoughts: Very diverse scripts and stories here.

Best Original Screenplay (4/5)

Lady Bird
Get Out
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards
The Post

Didn't Get: The Big Sick

Thoughts: I should've been more optimistic that The Big Sick would've got nominated. Also, with all the love for Phantom Thread's directing and acting I am surprised there were no nominations here for it.

Cinematography (4/5)

Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Call Me By Your Name
Mudbound

Didn't Get: Darkest Hour

Thoughts: The Shape of Water is so green that I thought it was apart of The Matrix but then I realised it was teal not green. Personally I didn't think 'Darkest Hour's' cinematography was worthy except for its high contrast. No emotion was really carried through it.

Editing (4/5)

Baby Driver
Dunkirk
Blade Runner 2049
Get Out
The Shape of Water

Didn't Get: I, Tonya and Three Billboards

Thoughts: Three Billboards was an incredibly uneven film and its editing did nothing to take my mind off the script's issues.

Score (4/5)

Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
Star Wars VIII
The Post
The Shape of Water

Didn't Get: Three Billboards

Thoughts: The Three Billboards score was composed by Carter Burwell who has done almost all of the Coen Brother's films but has never been nominated for his work on their films. So here he gets a nomination for a Coen Brother rip-off film? The Academy work in weird ways. Also, I hope Jonny Greenwood performs at the ceremony, maybe a duet with John Williams

Other categories and scorecard

Costume Design (3/5)

Production Design (4/5)

Makeup and Hair (2/3)

Song (4/5)

Sound Editing (5/5)

Sound Mixing (5/5)

Visual Effects (3/5)

Animated Film (3/5)

Documentary (3/5)

Foreign Film (4/5)

Live Action Short (4/5)